Pakistan's liberal-inclined military dictator Pervez Musharraf has been lucky to survive thus far his instant decision to ally himself with the United States and the West in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

There have been at least three attempts on Musharraf's life by radical Islamic Taliban and al-Qaida terrorists who have found a haven in Pakistan's wild and ungovernable western mountain regions after their ouster from neighbouring Afghanistan.

In Washington and among NATO members, including Canada, fighting the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan has always carried the realization that in Musharraf they were one miscalculation away from losing an important, if not always trustworthy or dependable, ally in the battle against the insurgents.

But now there is the prospect that Musharraf will be removed from the scene not by the luck of an assassin but by the former Pakistan army commander's own political errors.

The irony is that the threat to Musharraf comes not from Pakistan's small minority of Muslim radicals, but from the country's politically moderate middle ground. These people tacitly approved his seizure of power in 1999 from a democratically elected -- but hopelessly inept and corrupt -- government, and have by and large supported him since.

But in the past few weeks Musharraf has gone out of his way to antagonize mainstream Pakistan. And if his licence to govern is removed by the citizenry, grave questions arise about who or what might succeed him.

Musharraf's tumble began in March when he accused Pakistan's Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry of abuse of power and fired him. The legal community, however, believed the real reason was Musharraf feared the independent-minded Chaudhry would declare unconstitutional Musharraf's plans to demand endorsement from the biddable parliament of his desire for another five years as both president and military commander.

There have been weeks of peaceful demonstrations by Pakistan's legal fraternity; in the past few weeks the mainstream political parties, sensing Musharraf's vulnerability, joined the movement.

There were riots and shooting in Pakistan's commercial hub city of 15 million people, Karachi, on Saturday in which at least 49 people were killed and hundreds more were injured.

Some were shot by paramilitary troops. Others died when armed pro-Musharraf political factions battled opposition party supporters trying to welcome Chief Justice Chaudhry, who was unable to leave the airport.

A protest strike on Monday brought most economic activity in the country to a halt. At 4:30 Tuesday morning, a senior Supreme Court official and a close Chaudhry associate, Hammad Raza, was murdered at his home. The Musharraf regime is suspected, of course.

Pakistan is far too important to be left to its own fate in this uncertain climate. It is critical for NATO success in bringing stability and reconstruction in Afghanistan that Pakistan not continue as a haven and supply route for Taliban insurgents.

It is critical for the continued improvement of regional relations in South Asia that Musharraf's gestures to end hostilities with old rival India continue. And Pakistan is a nuclear power that would be a colossal danger if government were grabbed by a rogue regime such as the Taliban.

So Washington, with London at its elbow and probably the NATO cohorts nodding agreement, will ensure that if Musharraf tumbles there will be an acceptable replacement waiting in the wings.

The most likely format is that another general will be assigned the presidency. Given Musharraf's limited life-expectancy in the past six years, Washington and London probably already have a candidate earmarked.

Allowing an unmanaged return to democracy, with all the probabilities of transition squabbles that would give the religious radicals opportunities to seize power, is not on the cards. The exception would be carefully managed moves towards a partnership between parliament and the military.

Musharraf's fate, it must be emphasized, is not yet set. He still has a few options to get himself out of the domestic political quagmire he has created, such as pressing ahead with the muted democratization partnership with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and her party. But Musharraf must deploy more astute instincts than he has shown recently if he is to survive.

Sun International Affairs Columnist

jmanthorpe@png.canwest.com